Patience is a key to success - MRF

'Patience is a key to success', the statement comes true for those equity investors who invested in MRF shares in August 2001 and held on. Shares of the tyre manufacturer soared 9,900 per cent, or 100 times, to record high of Rs 50,000 on September 28, 2016, from Rs 500 in August 2001, thus becoming the most expensive stock in India in terms of share price followed by Eicher Motors (Rs 25,741.80), Bosch (Rs 23,209.60), Shree Cement (Rs 16,840), Page Industries (Rs 15,333) and 3M India (13, 177.75). 

Monthy Chart of MRF : -

How we see the same situation from different perspectives...

*Exhibit A*

*_A Small Story_*

To hunt crocodiles, the pond was dried.
No crocodiles were found because they can live on land too.

But all the small fish died.

This story has nothing to do with Demonetisation.




*Exhibit B*

*_The longer version of the small story_*

In another village the pond had really dirty water .. For years (about 60) despite having a huge pond poor farmers had to look upwards to the sky for water for their families ..the pond was never cleaned. The crocodiles were never hunted and no one cared if the fishes died . The water remained murky and could never be used for drinking. The entire village never grew to its potential. Then one day a man took upon himself the challange and decided  to clean the water. Some people who used to sell water tankers to the villagers were not happy and they did every bit to make sure that the man would not succeed.. They threw back dirt in water.. They pulled out the dead fish and called it outcome of water cleaning act.. They blamed it on the guy who was cleaning the water..

While most saw what was happening some still went wayward..

These guys now said that they could still see the crocodile in the water.. They said hey.. The crocodiles are still there .. We can clearly see them. So whats changed

Now thats the moral of the story.. This was never about hunting the crocodile..

This was always about giving fresh water to the village and to make sure the crocs are visible.. So that if they need to be hunted they can be hunted

This long story has everything to do with demonetization and as for the man who wanted to clean the water ..

He's now  planning other cleanups..

So.. in the end that's just how you look at it...🙂

                                                           Credit :- Nilesh shah

India to outperform other EMs once the dust settles.

ONCE THE DUST SETTLES SOONER OR LATER, INDIA IS GOING TO OUTPERFORM OTHER EMs. 

LOW CRUDE OIL PRICES:

• India saves around US$ 70 Billion in oil import bill. This savings can wipe out India's entire external debt in 7 years.

CONTINUOUSLY IMPROVING FUNDAMENTALS:

• Improving GDP (from 4.5% to 7.5% in 3 yrs)
• Continued improvement in Fiscal deficit & Current Account deficit (down from 5% to 1%).
• Very low WPI Inflation
• Falling Interest Rates
• All-Time highest Forex Reserves of $356 bn
• Most stable currency (vs USD) vis-a-vis all other 160 countries
• Heavily fallen commodity prices (Crude Oil, metals etc) leading to margin expansion is a major positive for India
• A stable, proactive, long-term focused Govt, Coal & Telecom auctions, gas pooling, DBT, GST , Bankruptcy act likely, diesel deregulation, resolving stalled projects, roads & railways increased spending ... so much happening in India 
• Sharply falling unemployment rate due to initiatives like 'Make in India' & 'Skill India' is helping create massive job opportunities for our huge population
• Remarkably improving data of Core sector, Mfg PMI index & other macroeconomic indicators.
• Expected Sovereign Rating upgrade by S&P.

Only Current Negative: Temporary Global Slowdown.

And more... Monsoon this Year:
As per developments over Indian ocean, global forecasters expect 'La Nina' phenomenon resulting in a strong monsoon across Asia in the upcoming monsoon season as against 'El Nino', which was responsible for monsoon deficit during last 2 years.

A bountiful monsoon coupled with improving macro fundamentals will lead to a meaningful earnings recovery and a strong rally in equity markets seems very much on the cards.

 Its up to us whether to focus on temporary external negatives (Temporary Global Slowdown) which brings Sensex down few thousand points or to focus on structural domestic positives which will take Sensex up many thousand points going ahead.

At Sensex 24,900... Sensex PE @ 18.85x .... Market Cap : GDP ratio 60%... happens rarely. It's absolutely an oversold market.

                                                                                                                           Credit: - Brian Point.