Fan Site: Inspired, Not Endorsed, By Porinju Veliyath

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Patience is a key to success - MRF

'Patience is a key to success', the statement comes true for those equity investors who invested in MRF shares in August 2001 and held on. Shares of the tyre manufacturer soared 9,900 per cent, or 100 times, to record high of Rs 50,000 on September 28, 2016, from Rs 500 in August 2001, thus becoming the most expensive stock in India in terms of share price followed by Eicher Motors (Rs 25,741.80), Bosch (Rs 23,209.60), Shree Cement (Rs 16,840), Page Industries (Rs 15,333) and 3M India (13, 177.75). 

Monthy Chart of MRF : -




How we see the same situation from different perspectives...




*Exhibit A*

*_A Small Story_*

To hunt crocodiles, the pond was dried.
No crocodiles were found because they can live on land too.

But all the small fish died.

This story has nothing to do with Demonetisation.




*Exhibit B*

*_The longer version of the small story_*

In another village the pond had really dirty water .. For years (about 60) despite having a huge pond poor farmers had to look upwards to the sky for water for their families ..the pond was never cleaned. The crocodiles were never hunted and no one cared if the fishes died . The water remained murky and could never be used for drinking. The entire village never grew to its potential. Then one day a man took upon himself the challange and decided  to clean the water. Some people who used to sell water tankers to the villagers were not happy and they did every bit to make sure that the man would not succeed.. They threw back dirt in water.. They pulled out the dead fish and called it outcome of water cleaning act.. They blamed it on the guy who was cleaning the water..

While most saw what was happening some still went wayward..

These guys now said that they could still see the crocodile in the water.. They said hey.. The crocodiles are still there .. We can clearly see them. So whats changed

Now thats the moral of the story.. This was never about hunting the crocodile..

This was always about giving fresh water to the village and to make sure the crocs are visible.. So that if they need to be hunted they can be hunted

This long story has everything to do with demonetization and as for the man who wanted to clean the water ..

He's now  planning other cleanups..

So.. in the end that's just how you look at it...🙂

                                                           Credit :- Nilesh shah

India to outperform other EMs once the dust settles.

ONCE THE DUST SETTLES SOONER OR LATER, INDIA IS GOING TO OUTPERFORM OTHER EMs. 


LOW CRUDE OIL PRICES:
  • India saves around US$ 70 Billion in oil import bill. This savings can wipe out India's entire external debt in 7 years.

CONTINUOUSLY IMPROVING FUNDAMENTALS:
  • Improving GDP (from 4.5% to 7.5% in 3 yrs)
  • Continued improvement in Fiscal deficit & Current Account deficit (down from 5% to 1%).
  • Very low WPI Inflation
  • Falling Interest Rates
  • All-Time highest Forex Reserves of $356 bn
  • Most stable currency (vs USD) vis-a-vis all other 160 countries
  • Heavily fallen commodity prices (Crude Oil, metals etc) leading to margin expansion is a major positive for India
  • A stable, proactive, long-term focused Govt, Coal & Telecom auctions, gas pooling, DBT, GST , Bankruptcy act likely, diesel deregulation, resolving stalled projects, roads & railways increased spending ... so much happening in India 
  • Sharply falling unemployment rate due to initiatives like 'Make in India' & 'Skill India' is helping create massive job opportunities for our huge population
  • Remarkably improving data of Core sector, Mfg PMI index & other macroeconomic indicators.
  • Expected Sovereign Rating upgrade by S&P.

Only Current Negative: Temporary Global Slowdown.

And more... Monsoon this Year:
As per developments over Indian ocean, global forecasters expect 'La Nina' phenomenon resulting in a strong monsoon across Asia in the upcoming monsoon season as against 'El Nino', which was responsible for monsoon deficit during last 2 years.

A bountiful monsoon coupled with improving macro fundamentals will lead to a meaningful earnings recovery and a strong rally in equity markets seems very much on the cards.

 Its up to us whether to focus on temporary external negatives (Temporary Global Slowdown) which brings Sensex down few thousand points or to focus on structural domestic positives which will take Sensex up many thousand points going ahead.
At Sensex 24,900... Sensex PE @ 18.85x .... Market Cap : GDP ratio 60%... happens rarely. It's absolutely an oversold market.


                                                                                                                           Credit: - Brian Point.



Porinju Veliyath's rags to riches journey

A popular theme in Malayalam cinema in the 80s was one where the protagonist aimlessly boarded a train from Kerala to Mumbai for a living and made it big in the country's financial capital. Kochi-based investor Porinju Veliyath's rags to riches journey probably has all the makings of such a blockbuster of that decade.


From being a phone operator in erstwhile Cochin to one of the most influential small-cap stock pickers in the country today, Veliyath, 53, has indeed come a long way though his recent ascent has been pockmarked with criticism about the quality of his stock pickings. Some of his more recent top picks are Shreyas Shipping, Jubilant Industries, TCI, NIIT, Force Motors and Alpa Labs. The total value of his share holdings is not known as he holds more than 1% in very few companies.

In addition to managing his own money, Veliyath handles client funds of close to Rs 400 crore through his firm Equity Intelligence. Among his other small-cap holdings are FCEL, Unitech, KRBL, Selan Exploration, Samtex Fashion, Simran Farms, Accel Transmatic, Stylam Industries, IZMO, Eastern Treads and BDH Industries. Most of these companies would not pass muster with large institutional investors. Nevertheless, these stocks have jumped multi-fold amid the mid- and small-cap frenzy in the last couple of years.
In the most recent case of Alpa Labs, shares more than quadrupled in less than three months since early September after news of Veliyath's interest in the stock got out. Another of his picks, NIIT, has more than doubled in six months since early June. These winners have helped him gain a fan following on Dalal Street. ET caught up with Veliyath in a five-star hotel in Mumbai's financial hub Bandra Kurla complex in November. After hesitating to talk about his personal life initially, Veliyath opened up about his college days, early years in the profession and his investment philosophy. His hunger to make it big was partly because of an underprivileged childhood.

At the age of 16, it dawned on Veliyath that his family did not have enough money to fund his higher education. The home they were staying in till then had to be sold to repay the debts. Soon, Veliyath shifted to Ernakulam, Kerala's biggest city, to hunt for a job to support his family and also fund his education.

He started as an accountant in a private firm at Rs 1,000 per month and then at Ernakulam Telephone Exchange as a phone operator drawing Rs 2,500. "I had to start working right from my teens...It was not easy. We were homeless when I started working," he said.
"Those were tough days." To save on rentals, Veliyath enrolled for the law programme at Ernakulam Law College, which offered cheap accommodation and canteen to its students. The next five years were spent studying law and routing trunk calls for the Kochi elite. After graduating in 1990, and not immediately finding any gainful employment back home, he boarded the steam engine-drawn Jayanthi Janata, a popular train for Keralites till mid-90s, for Mumbai with dreams of getting rich. Upon reaching the city, an acquaintance of Veliyath found him a job with Kotak Securities, initially as an office clerk and later as a floor trader.

Before hitting the trading floors, Veliyath changed his name to Francis. "Porinju was difficult for marketpeople to remember; so I used the English equivalent of Porinju, which is Francis," he guffaws. Veliyath stayed in Mumbai only for nine years. But, by then, he had learnt the ropes of the trade — mainly badla — from the best in market those days. The biggest lesson that Veliyath had learnt in his stint in Mumbai was that one only needs "common sense" to make money in stocks.

In 1999, Veliyath moved back to Kerala because he was unhappy with the quality of life in Mumbai. Soon after shifting base to Kochi, he made his first investment, mopping up as much as 8% stake in Geojit Financial Services. Geojit was trading in single-digits those days and the whole firm was valued at around Rs 2.5 crore then. "I told (CJ) George (founder of Geojit) then, his company would trade at Rs 1,000 in a few years but he simply laughed it off," Veliyath said. "The decision to buy Geojit was fairly a simple one; here you have a dividend paying company having capital market exposure, clean management and no debt — all for grabs at just about Rs 3 crore. It was an easy decision," he said.

The stock may not have touched Rs 1,000 but Geojit touched a high of Rs 280.65 in September 2006, helping him make big money in the investment. BNP Paribas acquired 34.5% stake in Geojit in 2007. This was the beginning of some larger fortunes to be made from the stock market. Armed with the newlyacquired wealth, Veliyath bought back the land his family sold decades ago to repay debt and built a luxurious farmhouse on it. Veliyath claims his investment portfolio has generated 33% compounded gains every year since 2003.
This could not be verified independently as portfolio advisors are not required to officially declare comparative returns. Veliyath's investment philosophy is far from conventional. He does not base his strategy on financial ratios or business cycles; on the contrary, it defies various established investment parameters. Many stocks in his portfolio are illiquid, while some of them do not make sense to orthodox stock pickers. His recent interest in some small-cap real estate companies have raised eyebrows.
"I feel there's price for everything. If a company is doing well and has good future prospects, ethics andcorporate governance should not come in the way of your investments," said Veliyath, defending his investment strategy. "I don't keep any market cap limits nor do I believe there's value in buying big companies at obscene valuations," he said. "Illiquidity in a stock is fine by me. In fact, only because it's illiquid, these stocks have not grown in value," he added. Detractors dismiss Veliyath as a rash stock-picker with 'little regard for quality'.
The more acrimonious ones simply feel he is in cahoots with friendly promoters. "I don't befriend management for insider information," Veliyath said. "I buy lesser-known, high quality businesses to derive maximum portfolio value. I don't shy away from smaller companies like other 'knowledgeable people' do." Veliyath quips as an afterthought: "I don't buy a lot of great companies with clean balance sheet, honest management and clear business visibility. If you invest in such companies, even bank FDs would beat your portfolio returns."

The new BULLS of Dalal street (Part - 2)


Kalpraj Dharamshi


The fifth-floor office of Kalpraj Dharamshi in central Mumbai reminds one of the den of Gordon Gekko, the protagonist in the Hollywood movie Wall Street. The room, not large, has soft lighting and is filled with an L-shaped work bureau facing three dealer tables, an array of computer monitors (each displaying charts, excel sheets and portfolio listings), two bronze bull figurines, telephones, piles of neatly arranged folders and an elliptical trainer at the far-end. It is from here Kalpraj Dharamshi punches in his winning trades.
Kalpraj Dharamshi (KD to his friends) is reclusive unlike his more famous friends Rakesh Jhunjhunwala and Ramesh Damani. Dharamshi prefers to be like his mentor Radhakishan Damani - silent in his approach and dead accurate while making investments.
Dharamshi and his friends were among the first to find value in niche businesses. Stocks like Amara Raja Batteries and Titan have yielded decent portfolio returns for this pack of value-hunters. Dharamshi is also a big investor in Delta Corp, which runs offshore casinos in Goa.
After much persuasion, Dharamshi met ET in his office a few days ago. His only condition was: "No interview please." Why should I come out now? I've nothing to tell anyone," he dismissed our pleas for an interview in one brutal stroke. Nevertheless, Dharamshi played a gracious host for the next 90 minutes, discussing stocks, markets, market cycles and strategies. He entered the market in the late 80s as a stock dealer. A few years of internship with leading brokers, some experience calling out trades on the trading ring and friendship pacts with a handful of young promising investors, Dharamshi was ready to start his own broking venture.
A few years later, Dharamshi shut his broking business and turned a fulltime investor. His first big jolt as an investor came in 2001, when the markets went into a tailspin post the 9/11 attack. Dharamshi, at that time, was betting big on stocks — especially of IT companies. After lying low for a few months, Dharamshi cleaned up his portfolio for a fresh start.
The cornerstone of Dharamshi's investments is solid research. KD relies a lot on technical research, according to friends. He is also known to meet managements before making large core-portfolio investments. Dharamshi is also fortunate to have well-connected friends like Damani and Jhunjhunwala to guide him through tough times. "Friends are important in stock markets... you need sensible people to correct you when you are reading markets wrong.," Dharamshi is known to have told an old acquaintance.

Dharamshi hunts for quality companies with good growth prospects. He is not much of a "sector picker" as he believes there could be several well-managed companies in sectors facing temporary cyclical headwinds. He does not buy highly-leveraged companies and 'turnaround stories' either. Marksans Pharma, Elecon Engineering, TVS Motors and Natco Pharma have been some of Dharamshi's best investments in recent years. Besides investments in stocks, Dharamshi has a small portfolio of private equity investments, but these have not yielded very well for him, say market insiders. "KD is not a very interesting investor. He's more long term," says a Mumbai-based high-profile stock investor.
Winning stocks: Elecon Engineering, Natco Pharma, Delta Corp, SQS India, E-Serve (later merged with TCS), TVS Motors, Marksans Pharma.
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Hitesh Ramji Zaveri
Barring a few old-timers on Dalal Street, nobody knows Hitesh Ramji Zaveri that well. Zaveri has no clique or friends, a trait he shares with some of the most successful investors. Not many brokers have dealt with him, and barring a few spreadsheet enthusiasts, no one has seen the depth of this portfolio.
Zaveri holds more than 1 per cent in nearly 60 companies, mostly penny stocks with prices ranging between Rs 5 and Rs 15 a share. Shervani Industrial Syndicate, Mahasagar Travels, STEL Holdings, Shree Steel Wire Ropes, Belapur Industries and Farry Industries are among his top picks.
"These are mostly kabaddi stocks (scrap quality); don't know why he's holding so many such stocks in his portfolio," says a stock researcher.
"For all you know, Zaveri must have bought these shares at very low prices. Since he holds large chunks, any minute bounce in prices would bring in good gains," adds the researcher.
Zaveri could be a very influential shareholder in several of these companies, according to a Mumbai-based stock broker. This is evident from his predatory dealings in consumer durables company IFB, where Zaveri picked about 14.35 per cent in early-2000. The IFB management had then approached the Company Law Board (CLB) seeking protection against a hostile takeover bid by Zaveri.
The CLB ruling favoured IFB and forced Zaveri to exit the company, though he made a neat profit. In 2014, Zaveri thwarted DIC India's delisting plans by asking for a better share buyback price. Zaveri holds 2.72 per cent in DIC India.
"He must be a very dominant shareholder in companies where he has chunky holdings. Zaveri seems to have a lot of interest in 'special situations' like delisting, where he can force companies to pay better buyback prices," the broker adds.
A savvy Mumbai-based operator, who says he met Zaveri once socially, recalls: "He seems to be a well-informed investor... His investment style is more penny stock-focussed. He likes small MNC stocks as well."

Winning stocks: DIC India, IFB, Williamson Magor, AP Paper Mills, Tarai Foods, Uniply Industries.



                                                                                                        Credit: - Shailesh Menon, ET Bureau.

The new BULLS of Dalal street (Part - 1)

They are some of the biggest investors in the stock market, with an uncanny ability to pick the right scripts. Their preferences are cues for not just ordinary investors but also prominent fund houses.

Ashish Kacholia

When Ashish bhaiya (as children call him) visited the Samaritan Mission School at Tikiapara near Howrah in West Bengal 13 years ago, it was a 350 sq ft room with three windows and some 25 students — mostly children of rickshaw-pullers, housemaids and drug addicts.
"Bhaiya's eyes welled up when he saw our kids sitting on the damp cemented floor," recalls Mamoon Akhtar of Samaritan Help Mission, which runs the school. While departing, Ashish bhaiya handed the first of his numerous cheques favouring the Samaritan Mission.
Today, the school imparts digitised education to over 3,000 students, boasts a playground and a vocational training lab, all thanks to the generosity of Ashish bhaiya and his rich friends from Mumbai. Little do these kids know that their bhaiya is one of the most influential investors on Dalal Street.
Every morning before the market opens, a raft of WhatsApp stock tips/messages that float around lists trades done by Kacholia the previous day. Stock market blogs typically mention Kacholia's portfolio every quarter. Dealers and stock-pitchers sell investment ideas to potential investors saying, "Kacholia ne entry maara hai." His fan following is such that stock market enthusiasts have started comparing Kacholia to the likes of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala and RK Damani, the high-profile investors of Dalal Street.
Kacholia started his career with Prime Securities and later moved to the Edelweiss' equity research desk. After learning the ropes, he started his own broking outfit — Lucky Securities. He accepted mandates from investors, and in a short time, was making money for them. But then if you know how to make money, why would you do it for someone else? From 2003, Kacholia started focusing on building his own portfolio.
As is his won't, Kacholia did not invest in tried and tested large-cap stocks. He pushed himself to find new investment ideas in the mid- and smallcap space. This strategy paid off as companies such as Pokarna Granites, Vadilal, Camlin, Axiscades Engineering, Acrysil, Lokesh Machines, Zen Technologies, Shaily Engineering Plastics and Ashiana Housing turned multi-baggers (record gainers in stock market parlance) in his portfolio. Kacholia holds investments of nearly Rs 350 crore in companies where he has more than 1 per cent shareholding. "Ashish does a lot of research before investing. He's a risk-taker; he buys shares in chunks if he's convinced. He meets the management if his investment is large," says a broker who executes trades for him.

Kacholia believes in testing the strength of his portfolio. So if the overall market momentum is weak, he dumps a portion of his holding to check for price resistance patterns. If the stock manages to ride out even during an "engineered selloff", he increases his holding. Kacholia does not hold more than 25-30 stocks in his portfolio at any given time. His price target is usually 1.5-2 times the buying price. That said, if company fundamentals turn negative mid-way to target, he dumps the stock dispassionately.
Kacholia leads a simple lifestyle. He also stays away from the spotlight. "I am a private person. Bull markets create heroes and bear markets create zeroes. So, I'd rather stay anonymous," was Kacholia's response to ET's request for a meeting.

Winning stocks: Pokarna Granites, Vadilal, Axiscades Engineering, Acrysil, and Shaily Engineering Plastics.
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Mukul Agrawal

Mukul Agrawal is the newest kid to break into the rich club on Dalal Street.
"Mukul smells and breathes money," says a long-time acquaintance. "He's not scared to take large bets, but he does that only after consulting several other investors and fund managers. He has got a good ring of friends in the market," he says.
Agrawal's bets are often in the range of Rs 20 crore to Rs 50 crore. He is known to keep two portfolios — one for investments and other for trading. Stocks like Nesco, Unitech and Wockhardt have yielded good returns for Agrawal over the years. Bharat Bijlee, Zen Technologies, Rico Auto Industries, KDDL Ltd, Shalimar Paints and Sunshield Chemicals are said to be his other top picks.
Hailing from the Mumbai suburbs, Agrawal and his brother Mayank started investing in stocks in the late-90s.
As many investors did those days, Mukul Agrawal started trading aggressively on market information and stock tips. When he started making money on his trades, he increased his bets. Eventually, he started following the investment pattern of some of the savviest and most notorious stock traders of those times.
It is not known if Agrawal had a direct hotline to some of these traders, but their aggressive investment style impressed him, at least, a little, according to brokers who have known him for several years.
This is evident from his trades in a leading pharmaceutical company where he entered and exited (the counter) multiple times.
"Multiple entries and exits are a pure trading strategy and Mukul has perfected it very well. He makes a lot of money like this," says the research head of a broking firm. Apart from gathering market consensus, Agrawal is known to be a stickler for research, especially when he is buying in his core portfolio. "Mukul is aggressive, but he does not put his principal at risk. He meets the management of companies where has long-term investments," said the equity sales head of mid-sized brokerage.
Apart from equities, Mukul Agrawal is also known to have investment interests in real estate. He is said to have funded several real estate properties in suburban Mumbai, it is learnt.
Agrawal's success in stock markets comes partly from his close circle of friends. He talks to a wide array of investors - right from highly-placed fund managers to long-only investors and market-movers.
"He's lion-hearted for sure," says a top broker, adding, "He'll take you along if you are his friend."
When stock markets tire him, Agrawal and his friends go on fun trips abroad — to the snow-clad peaks of Switzerland or Fisherman's Wharf in San Francisco. If the chips are down on the bourses, the gang embarks on trips to temples or Gurudwaras. On Makar Sankranti day, they fly kites atop terraces.

Winning stocks: Bharat Bijlee, Hindustan Dorr-Oliver, Honda Siel Power.
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Rakesh Kathotia

Rakesh Kathotia bought his first shares 30 years ago while pursuing graduation from a college in Kolkata. Little did he know that the 100 shares of Andrew Yule Company he bought — on a tip from a friend — would hook him to the stock market for life.
Having lived through six rip-roaring bull runs, five depressing bear phases and two big scams, Kathotia has evolved into a wiser and more careful investor. "But I still take a lot of risks. Stock market is the only place where you can take the risk; you have to take the risk to make money on the bourses," he says. "I listen to a lot of people who have a logical approach to investing. If they make sense, I do my own research on the stock; and if I am convinced, I buy the stock in good numbers," Kathotia explains.
Kathotia's moment in the sun came in 2007-08, in the thick of India's biggest bull-run, when he made significant sums of money across trades. Market intermediaries who have long worked with Kathotia describe him as a momentum player. "He rides momentum stocks... he takes a big position, waits for the stock to appreciate and then dumps without any care," says a retired fund manager who has known Kathotia for over two decades.
Kathotia learnt the tricks of the trade while working with a chartered accountant in Kolkata. He relocated to Mumbai in 1987 and a few years later, started a company that lent working capital to corporates. All this while, he dabbled in stocks making small investments and booking profits regularly. The failed venture forced Kathotia to go back to the stock market. His next big break came during the tech-boom, when he made a lot of profitable investments. "Despite having a good run then, we lost money in some IT counters," Kathotia recollects.
In the lull that followed the tech-bubble burst, Kathotia started a private equity fund, Subhkam Ventures, which cut PIPE (private investment in public equity) deals and provided growth funds to startups. The PE fund has exited investments in over 15 companies till date. Kathotia returned to active stock trading at the onset of the last bull-run. "We actively participated in the 2006-08 bull-run. Frankly, many of our trade leads were information based, but we studied those stocks well before investing."
Kathotia looks at operating cash flows and free cash flows prior to investing in a company. Most Indian companies do not have free cash flows; in such cases, Kathotia focuses on companies with significant RoEs. He also invests in well-managed companies with low operating cash flows, provided they have robust business prospects. Zee TV, Unitech and DLF are among stocks that have turned in good yields for this investor. "I like finding new companies to invest. I track mid- and small-cap stocks very closely," he says.
This hobby of investing in lesser-known stocks has cost him dearly a few times, especially in falling markets. "Some of my picks during the tech boom touched zero in value. Until that time, I never believed the stock price could ever touch zero," he guffaws.

Winning stocks: Century Plyboards, Escorts, Sical Logistics, Essel Propack, Strides Arcolab, Eros International.

                                                                                                        Credit: - Shailesh Menon, ET Bureau.

Why fall in Nifty of more than 3 % in a single day may be a sign to buy.


We look into instances of similar past market crashes to understand how markets behaved from thereon.

The last 20 times the Nifty fell more than 3 percent in a day, they rose 13 times over the next 10 days, and making up for the loss by clocking an average 3.95 percent gain.

What’s better: over the next 10 months, indexes headed higher 19 times out of 20 from the point of the market crash, with an average rise of 46 percent.

Here’s the table.


one more instance happened on 6th jan 2015, when nifty fell 3 % to close at 8127. after 10 working days Nifty i.e. on 20th jan 2015 Nifty closed at 8695.60. and two months after that on 04th march 2015 made a new all time high of 9119



so it is clearly evident that whenever nifty falls more than 3% in a single trading day, it's a good opportunity to buy.






                                                          Credit:- Mangalam Maloo (cnbc tv18)